class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Changes to police demand in COVID-19 pandemic ### Réka Solymosi, Matt Ashby, Eon Kim, Nadia Kennar, Karen Byrom, Alex McMillan, Phoebe Liebelt ### University of Manchester, Cheshire Constabulary, UCL ### 10/05/2022 --- class: center, middle # Aim Explore changes in calls for service and response over the pandemic and associated lockdowns. --- class: center, middle # The problem Binary comparisons of one period to another are common, but can be seriously misleading. --- class: center, middle <table> <tr> <td><img src="imgs/cov_news_01.png" alt="Newspaper headline: 'This is too much': crime continues despite pandemic"></td> <td><img src="imgs/cov_news_02.png" alt="Newspaper headline: Exhausted cities face another challenge: a surge in violence"></td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: #FFFFFF;"> <td><img src="imgs/cov_news_03.png" alt="Newspaper headline: Crime in UK falls sharply since start of coronavirus lockdown"></td> <td><img src="imgs/cov_news_04.png" alt="Newspaper headline: Crime rates drop across US amid the coronavirus pandemic"></td> </tr> </table> --- # It's easy to miss the big picture <img src="index_files/figure-html/atlanta-map-1-1.png" width="100%" /> --- # It's easy to miss the big picture <img src="index_files/figure-html/atlanta-map-2-1.png" width="100%" /> --- # It's easy to miss the big picture <img src="index_files/figure-html/atlanta-map-3-1.png" width="100%" /> --- # It's easy to miss the big picture <img src="index_files/figure-html/atlanta-map-4-1.png" width="100%" /> --- # It's easy to miss the big picture <img src="index_files/figure-html/atlanta-map-5-1.png" width="100%" /> --- # Need to account for trends .center[] --- # Need to account for noise .center[] --- # Another way to understand change <img src="index_files/figure-html/cin-chart-1-1.png" width="100%" /> --- # Another way to understand change <img src="index_files/figure-html/cin-chart-2-1.png" width="100%" /> --- # Another way to understand change <img src="index_files/figure-html/cin-chart-3-1.png" width="100%" /> --- # Another way to understand change <img src="index_files/figure-html/cin-chart-4-1.png" width="100%" /> --- # ARIMA models: a better way to understand change <img src="index_files/figure-html/cin-chart-5-1.png" width="100%" /> --- class: center, middle, inverse # Results --- <!-- --> --- class: center, middle, inverse # Changes in call types --- # Quiet roads <!-- --> --- # Expressions of concern <!-- --> --- # Expressions of concern > "ASB calls [are] about COVID breaches being coded as ASB … lots of people were reporting other people for breaching the rules. There were a lot of calls where people were very frustrated and they were complaining about their neighbours and the sort of call that sticks in my mind, which I found quite moving quite upsetting really was when somebody would ring in and say that they weren't able to go and visit their elderly relative who lived maybe a mile away … and their next door neighbour was having a party and all these people were turning up." (interview 1) --- ## Advice/Directions/Admin <!-- --> --- # Calls for information > "… there are also people calling in because they wanted advice about regulations or were uncertain about what they were allowed to do …" (interview 3) --- # Calls for reassurance > "I'd say there's definitely an increase in mental health related incidents that we're seeing and I think people are just really struggling with the isolation of being away from everyone … Sometimes people don't know [who to call] to speak to someone for support so they just ring the police. " (interview 4) --- # Support for such calls - internal FAQ > "We have an FAQ. That specially for FCC staff. And most of the answers can be found in there … There was plenty of support here at work … we had a very large VDU display on the wall with the latest rules and regulations like a like a PowerPoint running through on a continual rotation." (interview 1) --- # Violence and harassment <!-- --> --- # Night time economy > "A lot of the violence incidents that we deal with, especially the likes of Friday night, Saturday night, weekends people have been out drinking and the clubs and pubs and starting fights wasn't happening because the pubs weren't open." (interview 8) --- # Online harassment > "So obviously people are not able to go out and interact in person, but they can over social media and other avenues, such as phone calls, texts - these definitely seem more … I'd say they changed in the sense that the threats were still being made, but not in person, so they will be made over a text or a phone call, social media …" (interview 4) --- # Domestic incidents <!-- --> --- # Domestic incidents: no increase > "We were expecting an increase in domestic violence and domestic violence is a big issue for any force. And I'm not sure that in the early days we saw an increase. Certainly I didn't notice a dramatic increase or anything like that. (interview 3) > "I did expect more domestics and things because people were in their addresses, but it didn't. From my personal experience didn't seem to happen." (interview 7) --- # Domestic incidents linked with NTE > "… when we get the calls it's like … when they've been out on the town up to the pubs having drinks and then they come back and they disagree over something so little. And that's when the domestic start." (interview 5) --- # Domestic incidents: couldn't call? > "I remember a lady who was desperately upset. She was very, very distressed and this must have been as lockdown was easing a bit because her husband had actually gone out and this was the first opportunity she'd had to make the call … " (interview 1) --- # Presence of guardians/ absence of targets <!-- --> --- # Presence of guardians/ absence of targets <!-- --> --- # Presence of guardians/ absence of targets <!-- --> --- # Police response: Attendance rate <!-- --> --- # Police response: Attendance rate <!-- --> --- # Police response: Response time <!-- --> --- # Police response: Response time <!-- --> --- # Police response: Time on scene Need alltogether time on scene graph here --- # Police response: Time on scene <!-- --> --- class: center, middle, inverse # Change in nature of the demand --- # Index of Multiple Deprivation <!-- --> --- # No change for overall calls <!-- --> --- # ASB (concern over COVID-19 breach) <!-- --> --- ## Less concentration of ASB calls <!-- --> --- class: center, middle, inverse # Conclusions --- class: center, middle # Highlights - Expressions of concern - Calls for advice - Violence drop - No change in domestic incidents - For ASB the caller "profile" changed --- class: center, middle # Recommendations - Further spatio-temporal analysis - Share good practice (e.g. FHQ information to clarify rules and regulations) - Further and more robust look at changes to domestic incidents --- class: center, middle # Reflections on impact --- class: center, middle # More details Much more (e.g. quiet roads, absence of potential victims, presence of guardians, changes in police response) at [**bit.ly/n8-covid-calls-report**](https://bit.ly/n8-covid-calls-report) <img src="imgs/n8-covid-calls-report-qr-code.png" alt="QR code leading to the URL https://bit.ly/n8-covid-calls-report", height="300">